From the Shock of 2025 to the Reality of 2026: Where is the Wine Sector Heading?

Overproduction, falling consumption, communication failures, and the end of the traditional wine model?

The year 2025 came as no surprise to the wine industry. For at least two decades, researchers, technicians, and professionals in the sector had been warning of profound structural weaknesses—oversupply, dependence on traditional markets, an aging consumer base, and a chronic inability to communicate value. But the sector preferred to believe that simply producing better wine would be enough for the market to respond. It didn't.

With global consumption hitting its lowest level since 1961 and European production in a downward spiral with no clear prospect of reversal, reality is brutally imposing itself. We are not facing another cyclical crisis. We are facing a structural transformation that forces the sector to rethink everything: what it produces, for whom it produces, and—above all—how it communicates .

A straightforward diagnosis: The crisis is here to stay.

The wine crisis is not temporary. It's systemic. The problem is no longer just the price, but the volumes that need to be sold in a structurally smaller market. Financially pressured producers sell at any price, fueling a downward spiral that destroys value throughout the entire chain.

In this context, the absence of a clear marketing strategy—not promotional, but strategic—becomes evident. The sector remains excessively product-oriented and dramatically detached from the end consumer.

The Illusion of Premiumization: When Marketing Fails, Price Doesn't Save the Day

The industry has chosen to focus on the wrong segment. While the discourse obsessively concentrates on Generation Z and their moderate consumption habits, the reality is that millennials now represent the largest group of wine consumers—and are going through a period of intense economic pressure.

The premiumization strategy, widely advocated in the last decade, is now revealing its limits. Wines above 35 euros continue to grow, but represent a residual share of the global market. At the same time, the mid-range – between 8 and 15 euros – has been systematically abandoned , despite having been for decades the true economic pillar of the sector.

We have created a bipolar market: entry-level wines without identity in large distribution channels and excessively specialized premium wines. The result is clear: loss of accessibility, loss of emotional connection, and loss of cultural relevance .

Without consistent marketing, structured storytelling , and an effective digital presence, wine has ceased to be part of everyday life and has become an occasional and distant product.

Communication in Crisis: We Produce Better Than We Know How to Count

We are facing a sector that is increasingly disconnected from its consumers, its heritage, and its essence. Wine culture has ceased to be transmitted—not because it has lost value, but because we have failed to adapt it to new channels, languages, and formats .

Today, the purchase decision happens digitally long before the bottle reaches the table. Social networks, search engines, marketplaces, and review platforms shape perceptions. However, a large part of the sector remains absent, poorly represented, or held hostage by generic and institutional communication.

Without structured digital marketing — educational content, consistent presence, clear narrative — the wine loses the battle for attention before it even reaches the glass.

Data Doesn't Lie: We Produce for a World That No Longer Exists

The phrase repeated for decades — "people drink less, but better" — has finally become a reality. The problem is simple: there are no longer enough consumers for all the wine we continue to produce .

According to the OIV, global consumption fell by 3.3% in 2024, settling at 214.2 million hectoliters. World production in 2025 is estimated at around 232 million hectoliters — a 3% increase compared to 2024, but still 7% below the average of the last five years.

Convincing people to drink more wine isn't a strategy. Adapting wine to new consumption contexts is.

Portugal: When Identity Becomes a Communication Handicap

In Portugal, the problem is compounded by a structural failure in communication and positioning. The technical quality is widely recognized, but the country remains associated with cheap wines, unpronounceable grape varieties, and unclear messaging.

The 2025 harvest saw a 14% drop in production, to 5.9 million hectoliters. Fungal diseases intensified due to climate instability. But the problem is not just agricultural—it's strategic.

Four crisis distillations in five years demonstrate the failure of the model. The entry of bulk Spanish wine at very low prices puts even more pressure on a sector that already operates with minimal margins.

Exports to the United States fell 9.7% in the first five months of 2025. Tariffs exacerbated the situation, but exposed something deeper: excessive dependence on a few markets and the absence of a consistent international digital strategy .

The 15% tariffs introduced in August 2025 radically changed the game. Producers face impossible choices: absorb the costs or lose competitiveness.

Here, marketing becomes critical. The American market remains strategic not only for its volume, but also for its visibility and global influence. Those who build a brand—and not just a product—are better able to withstand price pressure.

The Crémants: A Case of Well-Executed Marketing

French crémants are the exception that proves the rule. They grew by 5.9% in 2024, with 114.5 million bottles sold. Since 2016, sales have increased by 47%.

The secret wasn't just technical. It was strategic.

• Clear positioning

• Affordable price

• Modern communication

• Well-managed expectations

They didn't try to be champagne. They became the credible alternative.

Wine Tourism: The Ignored Channel that Creates Real Value

In a context of squeezed margins and oversupply, wine tourism emerges as one of the few tools capable of creating direct value , without intermediaries.

More than just visiting the winery, wine tourism is:

• Brand building

• Consumer education

• Loyalty

• Direct sales with higher margins

Regions that have invested seriously in experiences — not just tests — show greater economic resilience. Physical contact with the territory, the history, and the people creates an emotional connection that no label can replace.

In Portugal, the potential is enormous, but underexploited. There is a lack of integration between tourism, digital marketing, and commercial strategy. Wine tourism needs to be considered as an economic pillar, not just a supplement.

Packaging, NoLo and Innovation: The Market Has Already Decided

Resistance to alternative packaging is symptomatic of a difficulty in accepting change. The modern consumer values practicality, sustainability, and price. The 750 ml bottle is no longer universal.

The same applies to non-alcoholic wines. They may raise identity debates, but the market responds positively. Ignoring this demand is to abdicate relevance.

Technology, People, and Climate: The Perfect Storm

Climate change intensifies technical challenges. The lack of skilled labor exacerbates them. The technology exists, but it is inaccessible to many without structured public support.

The Path to Reinvention: Marketing, Experience, and Adaptation

The solution isn't just about uprooting vines or distilling surplus wine. It's about:

• Redesign portfolios

• Creating wines more aligned with real-world consumption.

• Invest seriously in digital marketing.

• Transforming wine tourism into a central economic driver.

• Abandon the idea that quality sells itself.

2026: What's next?

If 2025 was the year of the shock of reality, 2026 will be the year of consequence . There will no longer be room for ambiguities, inconclusive diagnoses, or palliative solutions. The wine sector is entering a moment of natural selection , where only projects capable of structurally adapting to a market that has definitively changed will survive.

This is not a new economic cycle. This is the end of a model .

For decades, the sector operated on the implicit premise that wine sold itself. Technical quality, terroir, designation of origin, and tradition were considered sufficient arguments. By 2026, this logic will be definitively outdated.

Consumers no longer interpret technical codes, decipher unknown grape varieties, or accept paying more simply because a label says so. Wine is no longer a self-explanatory product —it needs context, narrative, and experience. Without these, it becomes invisible in a market saturated with alternatives.

Producers who enter 2026 still stuck in this logic will, in practice, be out of the game.

Marketing is not communication: it's business structure.

By 2026, marketing will cease to be an ancillary department and will become strategic infrastructure . Not talking about digital marketing will be equivalent to not talking about distribution in the 20th century.

Projects that will survive:

• They know their customer through data, not assumptions.

• They produce consistent educational content, not one-off campaigns.

• They use digital tools to build relationships, not just visibility.

• They dominate direct sales and communication channels.

Projects that will disappear:

• Dependent exclusively on importers

• Without a structured digital presence

• Unable to justify price and identity.

• Invisible outside the point of sale.

In 2026, those who don't control their narrative lose ground, lose value, and lose relevance .

Wine Tourism: From Side Activity to Economic Pillar

Until now, wine tourism has been treated as a nice complement. By 2026, it will become one of the few channels capable of guaranteeing real economic sustainability for small and medium-sized producers.

Not just because of direct sales — but because:

• It creates an emotional connection with the brand.

• Educate the consumer.

• Build loyalty without intermediaries.

• Increase average ticket price

• Reduces dependence on traditional distribution.

Regions and producers that do not integrate wine tourism into a professional framework—experience, hospitality, storytelling, digitalization of reservations and communication—will be foregoing one of the last available value drivers.

The End of the Illusion of the Unmarked Scale

For years it was believed that increasing volume would guarantee survival. By 2026, this illusion will be definitively shattered. Scale without a brand is simply excess stock .

The market will no longer absorb undifferentiated wines. The cost of capital, energy, and logistics will not allow operating with minimal margins indefinitely. Producers who cannot justify their place in the market will be forced to:

• Drastically reduce production

• Change model

• Or abandon the activity.

Not due to a lack of quality, but due to a lack of positioning.

Reimagined Portfolios: Fewer Wines, More Clear Wines

2026 will also mark the end of overly complex portfolios. Redundant wines, confusing ranges, and contradictory messages will no longer be sustainable.

Viable projects will be those that:

• Simplify the offer

• To clarify the role of each wine.

• Adapting styles to actual consumption.

• Introduce complementary categories (NoLo, alternative formats, experiences)

It's not about renouncing identity, but about making it legible .

Public Support: It's Either Structure or Nothing

By 2026, public support will have to change its nature. Crisis distillations have already proven to be merely postponing the problem. The sector doesn't need anesthesia—it needs surgery.

Effective support will be that which:

• Make technology easily accessible.

• Support the transition of business models.

• Encourage marketing, internationalization, and wine tourism.

• Promote smart consolidation.

Subsidizing overproduction will only prolong the agony.

Who Survives in 2026?

They will survive:

• Small but well-positioned projects.

• Medium-sized producers with clear branding and direct channels.

• Regions that have understood wine tourism as a strategic asset.

• Companies that invested in data, marketing, and experience.

They will disappear:

• Rigid structures

• Volume-dependent models

• Projects lacking a clear identity

• Who believes that "this too shall pass"

2026 Is Not Hope — It's Choice

The industry likes to ask if 2026 will be better. The question is wrong.

2026 will be different.

For some, it will be the beginning of a new phase — smaller, smarter, more profitable. For others, it will be the end.

The wine crisis was never just agricultural or economic. It was always cultural, strategic, and communicational. By 2026, this will become impossible to ignore. The market hasn't disappeared. The consumer hasn't disappeared. The old model is what has disappeared.

The last opportunity is not to produce better. It's to think differently, communicate better, and create value beyond the bottle. Those who understand this in 2026 will still exist. Those who don't will be left behind—not unfairly, but inevitably.

References:

• Andrade Viana, N. (2016). Digital wine marketing: Social media marketing for the wine industry . BIO Web of Conferences, 7 , 03011.

• Balassa, B. E. (2025). Traditional or alternative wine packaging: A study of consumer perceptions and purchasing decisions. International Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Administration .

• Deloitte Digital. (2024, September 16). Direct-to-consumer wine industry insights . Deloitte.

• Ferrara, C., De Feo, G., Picone, V., & others. (2020). Attitudes of consumers towards more sustainable alternative wine packaging: Evidence from a survey. Journal of Cleaner Production .

• Hillebrand Gori. (2025, October 28). Wine tourism: A connection between place, product and consumers .

• IWSR. (2024, December 18). Growth of expected from no-alcohol category by 2028 .

• Meininger's International. (2025, April 16). A historic low: Global wine drinking down 3% in 2024 .

• Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). (2025). 2025 Direct-to-Consumer Wine Report .

• Sustainalytics. (2025, February 25). Tapping into the rise of no- and low-alcohol: Opportunities and risks for beer, wine, and spirits companies .

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WRITTEN BY:

Pedro Fernandes

Pedro Fernandes is a Portuguese winemaker who has been involved in viticulture since he was 11 years old, where he started making his first wines with his father and doing tasks such as pruning.

Since then he has never stopped and in 2018 he decided to dedicate himself to the wine sector, starting by doing "everything backwards". He began by taking wine specialization courses such as WSET (Direct Wine) and Wine Expertise (ISAG) in 2018/2019. Then he graduated from the University of Nebrijia in Madrid, obtaining an MBA in Oenology (2020). In 2021, at the age of 39, he decided to pursue a Bachelor's degree in Oenology (UTAD), and against all odds, he finished the course in 2024.

Along the way, he created his first personal wine brand - Chãos - and completed an internship at the prestigious Chateau Latour (in Bordeaux).

Currently, he works as a consultant in the wine sector, where he plays a role not only as an oenologist, but also in creating business strategies for wine producers, with a current vision of the market, which includes resources from Digital Marketing and Wine Tourism.