I keep talking about this, but nobody listens to me...

Am I the only one who sees what's going on?

Am I the only one who sees the fate that the wine sector has in store?

To me, it seems too obvious and inevitable. But let's take it one step at a time.

I don't want to become too repetitive with my posts, but I feel that the vast majority of wine producers have absolutely no idea what's coming. They ignore the signs and focus on vanity.

Many times, whenever I speak with a producer, trying to understand the state of their business, one of the first things they all tell me is "my wine is different from the others!" I regret to inform you, but "no, it isn't!". Probably your wine is just one among many others. Being different from the others means having a 5-year waiting list to buy Romani Conté wines. Being different from the others means having wines at €10,000 a bottle and in March making €60 million in revenue with the worst wine, like the château where I did my internship.

Until it reaches that level, your wine is just another one. What changes is the story behind the wine, who produces it, its origin, and not necessarily the winemaking methods, grape varieties used, or organoleptic characteristics of the wine.

We need to start accepting that our wine is just one more, and when we say our wine is different, we have to ask ourselves, "Different for whom?" The first question I pose is: "Do you know exactly who your customer is?" If you're like most wine producers, you probably have no control or knowledge about your customers; you're most likely at the mercy of a distributor. But even if you do have some knowledge about your customer, there's one thing you should know beforehand: it's extremely easy to lose your customer. Today, and increasingly so, there's no such thing as a loyal customer, but rather a customer who wants one of two things – a lower price or to constantly try new things.

As long as we fail to understand the real problems the sector is facing and focus only on "showing off" our small empire, we will be heading towards decline. In Quantum Physics there is a law that says " everything that doesn't grow dies ," which means that if your business isn't growing, it will probably disappear soon.

I often see winegrowers and producers blaming the Government, the local Wine Region Commission (CVR), the IVDP (Instituto dos Vinhos do Douro e do Porto), the Sabrosa or Santa Marta Wine Cooperative (among others), the English families who settled in the Douro like the Symingtons , the Spanish wine that enters Portugal, among other culprits. And then there is another current, a kind of Templar Warriors, who defend the recreation of the Douro House as divine salvation.

In reality, the problem in the wine sector is much bigger than that, especially since most market players aren't even aware that there is a problem. The problem is there and it's evident, but it seems like only I see it. I sense a certain recklessness regarding what I've been witnessing. It seems like everything is fine and running smoothly, but the truth is, it's not.

What happened in the Douro Valley during the 2024 harvest was just a "taste" of what's to come, and I'm not the one saying this, it's the international market. In 2024, in Napa Valley (in the USA), the cost of Cabernet Sauvignon grapes was $600 per ton, which at current prices is equivalent to approximately €550 per 1000kg, or about €1.80 per kilogram of grapes. Well, we wish! So far, so good, but in reality, in 2023 it was $6500 per ton, which means that, all things considered, it was more or less €6 per kilogram. In the end, in just one year, there was a 90% decrease in the price of grapes, and this is largely due to the decreasing value of sales, as can be seen in the table below.

Taking this example, if in the USA things are trending towards having 5 wines in the latest Wine Enthusiast ranking of the 10 best wines in the world (2023) , and that country alone is worth more than the whole of Europe in economic terms, imagine what it will be like in Portugal… Our problem is much bigger than ourselves.

For example, I am often confronted with producers who seek my wine consulting services, and usually what they are looking for is one of two things:

- or they want me to help them make better wines

- Or they want me to help them sell the enormous amount of wine they have.

Starting with the first option, if you're looking for me just to make wine , I'm not the ideal person. Firstly, because I don't have the time, and secondly, and most importantly, the problem for a wine producer is almost never a lack of wine quality. Obviously, technical advice in winemaking is important, and it's always more desirable to have quality and distinctive wines than not to have them, but that's a "false" problem. To design a wine, before anything else, it's important to understand your target audience , and many other variables must be considered. We have a tendency to think "first we do it, then we'll see." But we should think the other way around. What the producer needs are processes and structural measures before designing the wine.

Regarding the second option, and taking advantage of Halloween and the spells and remedies that come with it, selling wine isn't about reciting three Our Fathers and two Hail Marys . I don't perform miracles. To sell wine, you need to go back to those structural measures – the guiding thread we work with, showing us the right path to follow, without vanity, without excuses, without "I know best" and "it's always been done this way." It's about putting your "tail between your legs," acknowledging past mistakes, learning from them, rolling up your sleeves, and working. And working means producing value , not just throwing out a few "guesses." In wine consulting, we don't just make wine for the sake of it. The goal isn't to be known as "vat fillers."

When producers contact me and I tell them a little about this, I quickly realize that the market isn't mentally prepared for my ideas and that some of what I say and the ideas I present are an "affront" to what they consider reasonable. Then I have some who say that what I charge is expensive, and I come across equipment in their cellars that costs €200,000 and is used once a year, adding little or nothing to the business. And then I end up telling them that this is enough to pay for about 15 years of wine consulting, and they just look at me without saying anything. Then there's another group of producers who don't give me the data I ask for because it's "confidential" information, and I "throw it in their faces" saying that in France I even had access to their financial accounts.

I often end meetings by wishing them good luck.

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WRITTEN BY:

Pedro Fernandes

Pedro Fernandes is a Portuguese winemaker who has been involved in viticulture since he was 11 years old, where he started making his first wines with his father and doing tasks such as pruning.

Since then he has never stopped and in 2018 he decided to dedicate himself to the wine sector, starting by doing "everything backwards". He began by taking wine specialization courses such as WSET (Direct Wine) and Wine Expertise (ISAG) in 2018/2019. Then he graduated from the University of Nebrijia in Madrid, obtaining an MBA in Oenology (2020). In 2021, at the age of 39, he decided to pursue a Bachelor's degree in Oenology (UTAD), and against all odds, he finished the course in 2024.

Along the way, he created his first personal wine brand - Chãos - and completed an internship at the prestigious Chateau Latour (in Bordeaux).

Currently, he works as a consultant in the wine sector, where he plays a role not only as an oenologist, but also in creating business strategies for wine producers, with a current vision of the market, which includes resources from Digital Marketing and Wine Tourism.